How Dennis Tito could send humans to Mars and back by 2020

Late last dark , word start out circulating that enterpriser Dennis Tito — who , in 2001,became the world ’s first space tourist — intends to launch a in camera back mission to Mars in 2018 . Details will be announced next hebdomad , but initial reports indicate that the expedition will be round - trip and last 501 days .

Most importantly , it will postulate human crew members . Can we really send humans to Mars and back by 2020 ? We ’re very skeptical , but it ’s certainly imaginable . Here ’s why .

First let ’s bring you up to focal ratio . Speculation kicked into high gearing late last night when news of an historic “ Mission for America ” — to be announce at a press conference next week — arrived in the form of a medium advisory . Titled “ The satellite Are ordinate for a Once - in - a - Generation Space Journey , ” the press release was write out by aerospace marketing firmGriffin Communications Groupon behalf of the Inspiration Mars Foundation , a mysterious entity placard as a “ freshly founded nonprofit organisation pass by American Space traveller and entrepreneur Dennis Tito . ” ( project below is Tito in 2001 during final preparations for his flight to the ISS . )

Contrary toinitialreports , the promulgation makes zero mention of a manned mission . None whatsoever . Click here to read the advisory in full .

Does it mention a 2018 launching day of the month ? Yes . Roundtrip journeying ? Check . 501 - day missionary work ? Yep . But a“daring man voyage”to Mars ? A ocean trip CNET reported 72 - twelvemonth - honest-to-goodness Dennis Tito ( 77 by January , 2018 , mind you)intends to carry out himself?No and no . It seemed … unconvincing to say the least . Where would so ambitious a project get its financing ? Where ’s the technology ?

But now , Jeff Foust ofNewSpace Journal , has cut into up some information that indicates Tito is , in fact , intending to announce a manned , round - tripper missionary work to Mars .

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Upon close inspection ofthe program agenda for next calendar month ’s IEEE Aerospace Conferencein Montana , Foust discovered that Tito is scheduled to host a session on Sunday , March 3 with a rather tell title : “ Feasibility Analysis for a Manned Mars Free Return Mission in 2018.″ Listed carbon monoxide - authors let in John Carrico , Grant Anderson , Michel Loucks , Taber Mac Callum , Thomas Squire and Jonathan Clark — all of whom will get together Tito at next week ’s Inspiration Mars Foundation press conference .

Writes Foust[emphasis add ] :

[ NewSpace Journal ] hold a copy of the paper Tito et al . architectural plan to salute at the conference , discuss a crewed free - return Mars missionary station that would vaporize by Mars , but not go into orbit around the planet or land on it . This 501 - day mission would plunge in January 2018 , using a modified SpaceX Dragon spacecraft launched on a Falcon Heavy rocket . accord to the theme , existing environmental control and life support organisation ( ECLSS ) technology would let such a spacecraft to support two people for the mission , although in Spartan stipulation . “ bunch consolation is limited to survival needs only . For example , sponger baths are acceptable , with no need for shower , ” the newspaper publisher states … [ add ] that if they overleap this favorable 2018 opportunity , the next chance to take advantage of this favorable trajectory would be in 2031 .

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To recapitulation : this delegacy will not take humans to the surface of Mars . Nor is it an orbital mission . This is a fly by , help by a modified SpaceX Dragon capsule ( which , last year , becamethe first commercial space vehicle in historyto tail with the International Space Station ) and the ship’s company ’s as - yet - untested space travel launch system , theFalcon Heavy Rocket , a concept video of which is feature below . Oh — and it ’s all playing out on a rather cramp schedule .

If Tito can get the funding he needs ; if a modified Dragon Capsule can show itself desirable of human rider ; if the Falcon Heavy can be ready for a January 2018 launch ( just a few in a long list of big to very openhanded “ ifs ” ) — then Tito ’s plan is toeing invitingly closelipped at the line break achievable from downright visionary .

say seam is the very definition of mulct . A exhaustively vetted and fully functional Falcon Heavy launching fomite quick for a Mars foreign mission in January 2018 , would put SpaceX years ahead of NASA ’s Space Launch System . ( The Agency ’s deep - space capable , hard - lift rocket is n’t scheduled to debut until December 2017 , and even then it will be in a rotund - trip , unmanned commission to the Moon , not Mars . )

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What ’s more , SpaceX ’s Dragon Capsule would almost certainly need to carry crew member to and from the International Space Station flawlessly , and several clip , before any astronauts depart in one destined for Mars .

There ’s also the question ofwhether Dragon ’s radiation shielding would be sufficientfor an interplanetary excursion century of millions of miles and 500 days longer than the pleasure trip ( relatively speaking ) to low - Earth orbit . With SpaceX contrive its first crewed Dragon missions to the ISS in 2015 , that ’s trim thing jolly nigh — peculiarly given the company ’s habit of runningslightly behind schedule .

For SpaceX to cleave to the 2018 deadline of Tito ’s Mars mission would be ambitious for sure – but calculate against Elon Musk and his company for being “ overly ambitious”is fast becoming a rather speculative wager .

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No — one of the greatest challenges that must be confronted by a human mission to Mars ( but Tito ’s peculiarly ) is the wallop such a journeying would have on its crew member . A 501 - solar day Mars mission would crushthe current recordfor longest human spacefaring by more than 60 days , and while the physical repercussions of longterm human space flight of stairs are poorly empathize , we do know that our muscleman and boneswaste away rapidly in low- and zero - gravity environs . One of the well ways to struggle the body ’s deterioration is with even exercise . If engineers are to let in physical exertion equipment in the narrow confines of a Dragon space capsule , they ’ll have to get mighty creative . [ The infographic have here , courtesy SPACE.com , gives you an theme of the Dragon ’s size . Click to enlarge . See also : this first-class computer graphic of man capsule size comparisons . ]

And speak of cramped quarters , one has to reckon that the psychological toll of this commission would be incredible . Only a fistful of Mars mission simulation have ever been conducted , and those that havehave offered limited evidence that we ’re psychologically equipped for a tripper to Mars — let alone one inside a foxiness as snug as Dragon .

All in all , Tito ’s is an beguiling and border - feasible proposition , but it ’s positively lousy with soaring ambition and niggling caveat . We ’re very interested to hear what he and his workfellow will have to say on this next week , and we will of course of study keep you send .

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