Twelve teetering technologies : will they endure or die out ? MaximumPC rounds up its Dirty Dozen tech that they expect to die out by 2020 — or at least arrive tight . Here ’s who ’s on the chop up pulley-block .
You will in all probability differ with some of our assessments . But you ’re wrong and we ’re right . At least we think we ’re right . And if we ’re one day proven incorrect , hopefully you ’ll have blank out our bold stance and bravado .
And we ’re not taking the easy itinerary here either . We ’re not call up for the death of obvious targets such as facsimile car . No , we care to think we ’re handle with rather more controversial subjects , both on the thumbs - up and on the pollex - down side of affair . And if you prefer to discredit us by grease one’s palms into one of our doomed concept , well , do n’t say we did n’t warn you .
The Doomed
1 ) Pre - recorded Physical Media
As online connectivity , in either its wired or wireless pretense , expands toward ubiquity , as data transmission rates increase , and as the proliferation of cyberspace - centric devices in our society continues unabated , there ’s trivial doubt the Web will before long be the hub for all our personal electronic amusement . How could it not ?
Why then — if we can go online to get our goodies quicker and with far less hassle , far less cost , and far less packaging — would pre - enter forcible media live at all ? We think it wo n’t .
The transition is already happening all around us . Downloadable music of form , but downloadable game and indeed on - demand gaming services too . Today , we find operating systems ( Google ’s Chrome ) that live only in the Cloud , Blu - beam thespian that emphasize Internet connectivity , and recently - announce Netflix subscription that favour pour over shipped movies . The list is long and it only grows longer with each passing day .
We know people who have n’t bought a candle or hire a movie phonograph record in yr . That will very shortly be the rule rather than the elision .
2 ) Stereoscopic ( with shabu ) 3-D TVs
fatigue stereoscopic ( three-D ) glasses in a movie theater — where the environment is optimum , the cover is gargantuan , and the nerd stigma of the glasses themselves is understate — is one thing . But at house , it ’s a different story . Not only will you gift a gross ton type O ’ bucks on a 3D - capable TV and 3D glasses for everyone who see said TV , but even then the depicted object , the quality , and the three - dimensional shock are miss .
And one other ineluctable fact — those glasses are a total dogfight . If you already wear prescription chalk , they ’re a hassle . If you watch TV while you ’re doing other thing , they ’re a hassle . If you ’re one of those who suffer from headaches or the eye strain that 3D glass can cause , they ’re a bother . And they ’re not on the button chic , are they ?
Put all of this together and bring a tidy dose of consumer confusion and apathy over the whole thing , and you begin to get an idea why 3D TV , in its current sort , is n’t on the dot demand the world by storm . Indeed , it ’s sputter .
We humbly feel stereoscopic 3D TV has already passed its due appointment and is nothing more than a money endocarp for those who corrupt into it . for sure , the technology will carry on to be with us for a bit yet , but the long - terminal figure prognosis is anything but affirmative . For starters , with pictures and prices that are better than ever , in effect old 2D TV is seem damn in force these day . But await in the annexe is an alternate – and theoretically superior – concept to stereoscopic 3D goggle box telephone “ autostereoscopic ” television receiver .
In autostereoscopic TV , specs are hand over passé and displays are ingeniously fitted with plastic lenticular sheet that refract luminousness so each center sees an ever so more or less unparalleled perspective . Toshiba has recently exhaust one such TV into the Nipponese market and is set to swank larger loop at 2011 ’s Ce ( Consumer and Electronics ) Show .
Beyond that lies the promise of holographical TV , wherein amply realized three - dimensional subjects fundamentally “ float ” in the eye of your room ( a la Princess Leia in 1977 ’s Star Wars ) . Sadly , commercially usable holographic TVs are still a decennium away .
Still , given the alternatives , the lack of content , and the convolution surround today ’s brand name of 3D TV , we ca n’t aid but feel the end is nigh .
3 ) eBook lecturer
There ’s little doubtfulness , even to the doughtiest doubter , that Amazon ’s Kindle and its ilk are darned not bad innovations . A individual electronic gizmo that weigh less than many soft-cover and is slim enough to slide in a jacket scoop , yet accommodate , at least temporarily , all the books you and everyone you know could ever desire to read ? sound great , especially now that current model offer incredible barrage life , awesome displays , and commendable informality of use .
So why are they on our terminal list ? Because as good as they are at the job they do , that ’s pretty much the only job they do . Like a standard pocket knife versus its far more compelling Swiss Army cousin , a Kindle simply ca n’t touch a tablet , be it iPad or something else , when it comes to versatility .
Granted , the Kindle in particular has all those line - specific advantages we just outlined , but given that the far more various iPad is already used by many as their sole atomic number 99 - lecturer , and that its studious dash will only meliorate with clip and next revisions , one can reasonably assume it will take larger and big bites from the standalone e - Book reader market . And let ’s not blank out smartphones . For the casual lector who places more importance on portability and remarkable equipment , they sure as shooting suffice .
The standalone eBook reader wo n’t choke quiet , but in this daylight of escalating convergency and the increase capabilities of top - level converged gadget , its time is mark .
4 ) Consumer - Level voiceless drive
When it comes to the possible death of the consumer - level punishing drive , the question is n’t “ if . ” It ’s “ when . ”
And , to a lesser degree , “ what . ” Like Julius Caesar , the hard thrust , once the beating heart of its domain and certainly one of the most often replaced / promote PC components of all time and so one of technology ’s better money - makers , is under attack from all sides .
The most obvious immediate threat comes by way of flare computer memory self-coloured state drives . Sure , solid state remains a far more expensive per - G solution , but it ’s also much quicker and ( probably ) much more durable . Full - scale solid body politic espousal likely wo n’t pass until the damage gap closes substantially more than it already has , but we ’re talking years here ethnic music – not decades .
In the meanwhile , do n’t require life to get any leisurely for the good erstwhile hard effort . Consider , for deterrent example , the explosive development of radical - portable convergent equipment such as saucy phones and iPads . Truth is that for many of us – particularly younger folks and/or those who can get along amercement without the capabilities of a full - fledged computer – PCs , laptop , and the difficult crusade inside them are already prehistoric .
For this growing horde of fluid hipsters , hard drives never stood a luck . Instead , they shun space - hogging operating system in favour of Google ’s “ virtual ” Chrome . They store their datum on work up - in or removable memory cards . And in many pillow slip , they take full advantage of the Cloud .
Indeed , if instant computer storage , microcomputer / laptop indifference , and/or the potential experimental extinction of traditional operating scheme do n’t drive the concluding nails into the coffin of the consumer - level operose drive , the Cloud likely will . Amongst the handsome manufacture player , Cloud rhetoric is high . And surely one needs only look at the sudden proliferation of host farms all across this country ( Apple ’s new North Caroline monster , for example ) to see the strong-arm expression of it is also alive and well .
Today , hard drives are crazy flash . So too were floppy drive and HD DVDs as their passing escort approach .
5) Keys
Keys suck . They get lost , they get slip , they ’re annoyingly inconvenient if your bridge player are otherwise busy , and they poke pickle in your clothing .
This is no big disclosure . Society as a whole has sleep together for a very farsighted time the level to which Florida key suck . And until we banish them forever to the land of 8 - tracks and wood - panel place wagons , they will continue to do so .
Fortunately , that banishment has already begun . Several years ago , keyless residential door hardware first appeared in the retail market , enabling homeowners nationwide to spread their front doors without first fish through all their pockets . More recently , energy - button automotive ignition systems start their migration from high - end sumptuousness vehicles to more affordable cars , in turn deter theft , reduce the chance of locking those naughty keys inside a car , and make the whole entry and passing process easier even for us of less spectacular incomes . And of course of study there ’s biometry — a science that in many fashion has already deliver us from old school security measures in all base on balls of living .
Having state all that , it ’s also clear that weaning ourselves from the cold , metal clench of our jagged foes wo n’t be easy while there are approximately ten bazillion of them in circulation . Still , if today you’re able to enter your home , start your railway car , and gain admission to your 30th floor office without ever using a key fruit , can the pleasure of a whole key - detached future be that far off ?
6) Handheld Gaming Consoles
What if you devised a really in force hand-held secret plan ? A game so unspoiled that a handheld console table steamroller like Sony or Nintendo want exclusivity ? Would n’t that be nerveless ? Would n’t that be a great position to be in ?
Of course it would . the right way now . But what if it all went down a few years down the road , when everyone and their goat are walking around with whatever music player / tv camera / figurer / sound / tablet gizmo that ’s become the Next Big affair ? And what if this convenience also play a short ton of decent games ? And what if all these people and goat did n’t need to be trouble oneself carrying around a second gizmo whose only purpose was to bring a select few exclusive title ?
Such is the inevitable effect of technical phylogenesis . While phones and tablets and other assorted do - all goody do n’t presently have the electronic jamming to be true gambling leviathan , they ’ll shortly be expert enough that that most game - players wo n’t care . And that , in the grand dodging of things , is what shapes the industry .
The Survivors
1) Digital Music/Media Players
The ending of the reign of the personal euphony player was foretold many years ago , while the Sony WalkMan was still in its diapers . Too clumsy , they enounce . Too niche . Too anti - social . Today in the humankind of the iPod , most of that reasoning has plain dissipated . Still , the doomsayers wo n’t go away . Now , they order us no one will want dedicated euphony player when full - blow medium ( video ) musician and smartphones and the the like can do so much more .
We humbly disagree . possibly we do n’t inevitably want more . peradventure we prefer crazily tiny music player to larger multipurpose devices . Maybe we ’re in the gymnasium or jogging or otherwise cavorting in tight surroundings where squat gadget are n’t most so appropriate . And maybe we do n’t want the disbursal — both at the time of sales agreement and via subscription — that more sophisticated devices bestow upon us .
We do n’t deny that a shrinking standalone personal music player market is ahead of us . Convergence is certainly here to stay . But we do n’t think the child iPods or Clips are going out until they can insert chips at once under our skin . The sheer number of personal music histrion drug user is vast — too huge to see their twist of choice go by like the Kindle will .
2) Landline telephone
Facing plastered , unrelenting contention from Voice over Internet Protocol ( VoIP ) , text - free-base communication , and of line , the cellular phone / smart headphone , Plain Old Telephone Service ( POTS ) certainly come along headed for the practical junkyard . And indeed , recent studies suggest that a growing number of Americans have or are in the process of give up their land line completely in favour of one of today ’s many choice .
But it simply is n’t that cut and dried . landline – at least corded landline phones – are a saving grace during prolong power outages . They will continue to play a role in the patronage universe and in large homes , where multiple handsets are unwashed . Moreover , depending on custom , minimal - use landline rates are now relatively tinny . And it almost goes without say that the exist POTS infrastructure is perfectly gigantic .
Though to many a purely redundant technology , chances are the revered landline will survive until we have a better way of dealing with the instance where it is most invaluable . And that ’s a long , retentive time from now .
3) Internal Combustion Automobile Engine
Let ’s get this straight right field from the outset – the hybrid engineering science found in cars such as the Toyota Prius and Honda Insight is most in spades not the next major step in automotive propulsion . It is alternatively a gas / galvanising period - gap measuring stick that ’ll carry us over to whatever technology gains traction in the contiguous time to come . Fact is that many natural gas - powered gondola – and many more in the 2012 model year if we can believe what we ’re hearing from companies like Hyundai and Ford – fly the coop much clear than their quondam school day gas twin and deliver fuel economy not far off that of current hybrids . And they ’re a hell of a destiny cheaper and more working to boot .
So what does that leave us ? Fuel cells ? Maybe , and certainly Hyundai ’s recent announcement that it ’ll have a fuel cell - power SUV by 2015 lends acceptance . But fuel cadre technology is nothing fresh – it ’s been with us for decade now and still has pregnant hurdles to open , not to mention a still - faint infrastructure .
bombardment - powered galvanic fomite like the freshly unveil Nissan Leaf may point the mode to the future , but right now , with a 100 - mile range between charge , the Leaf clear is n’t the answer for anyone who drives appreciable distances . And what about Chevy ’s much - hype Volt ? It certainly fork out a retentive range , but it does so because alongside its battery is a – you guess it – small gasoline combustion railway locomotive . That the miniature Leaf will be you in excess of $ 30,000 and the Volt more than 40 with child obviously does n’t help with adoption .
There are , of class , other camps that nominate other root . Indeed , there ’s no shortage of project concepts , each of which is indorse by a lot of hoi polloi hoping theirs will one day be the ultimate internal burning railway locomotive killer . And that may be the big obstacle of all . Do you select a given engineering , only to discover several years from now that your chosen road is a very expensive dead end ? invest a few hundred buck in Betamax or HD videodisk is one matter . set down this much bread is something all dissimilar .
We ’re all for the greening of America and we ’d sure as shooting care to wedge a shiv into the rich gut of Big Oil . But if we were choosing a motorcar in the foreseeable future , the lure of a 40 MPG Hyundai or Ford or “ light diesel ” VW seems a far more ordered gradation than pure surmise . And that ’s why we feel the inner burning engine will be with us for some time to hail .
4, 5 & 6) The PC, The Computer Keyboard, & The Computer Mouse
We chunk three of the devices we feel are n’t face up obsolescence under one heading because , allow ’s face it , when they do reach out their Waterloo one day far , far into the future , there ’s a good chance they ’ll do it in close proximity to one another .
Let ’s first attend at what is arguably the centerpiece of the intact technological revolution – the desktop personal data processor . Rumors of its death have circulated since the 1990s , when laptops came into vogue , and they ’ll doubtless continue . But despite the hike of all - in - ones , increasingly able laptops , pad of paper , smartphones , touchscreen technology , and a host of other sport of the original conception , the desktop as we bang it shall survive .
Why ? For starter , because it ’s really , really easy to promote and/or recompense . only pop out the offend piece and replace it with something good . It ’s also comparatively low-priced . Just try on buying a portable system with the same specs as your box , and you ’ll quickly name the hurting of financial withdrawal . And that get down us to our third point – power . Whether you ’re a gamer , a videographer , a 3D intriguer , or anyone who truly exploits the CPU , the GPU , the memory , and the storage , the microcomputer will long persist your go - to equipment .
The venerable keyboard and mouse , give all the alternatives bandy about in the media , would at first glance seem to have even less chance of growing one-time gracefully . But first glances , as any nightspot goer will evidence you , are n’t always right . Speech recognition , as potent as it theoretically is , wo n’t stamp out the keyboard for a foresighted prison term yet because it simply reject to develop to a point where it ’s truly useful . Touchscreens , as much as they ’re currently gas in the wandering world , just are n’t the result for those who use – really utilize – a PC . Does anyone really think leaning forward to access a touchscreen is a higher-ranking method acting of desktop control ? As for projection keyboards , on - blind keyboards , and laptop - stylus touch pads , we have just one word . Puh - lease .
Sure , we listen how new widget are cool and how they ’ll reshape this and that and give us all a unfermented perspective on things . But in the final stage , when heavy work needs doing or heavy games need acting , the versatility , power , claim control , ease of employment , and yes , the conversance of the microcomputer and its major peripherals will win out for at least another propagation .
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